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The 140-characters Netscape
I’ve had an interesting conversation earlier this week with a VC guy. He’s looking at a company that is basing its business on Twitter. My immediate reaction was – there is no way I’d consider building a long-term business on top of Twitter.
That’s because I don’t think there is a long term future for Twitter.
I love Twitter. I really do. Not in the Mel Brooks sense, mind you. I use Twitter a lot (not as much as Jeff, but still :), and I value the way Twitter changed our world.
However, I believe that in 2 years the Twitter brand will be in the same position as the Netscape brand is in now: Twitter will be credited with starting the revolution, and paving the road for followers (pun intended). But at the same time, it will be pushed into a minor position in the market with other players taking the lead (or, as is the case with Netscape, will no longer exist).
Twitter is the model for open conversations. They’ve crystallized the one-way-relationship model and brought it to the masses. You can follow anyone you want. You don’t have even to be a follower to read what anyone says – just visit their stream or subscribe to it with RSS. You can @mention anyone, who may or may not @reply back.
Contrast that with the Twitter platform, which is as closed as it gets.
Can you imagine email, The Killer App for the net, being so successful if you could only email people who use the same email provider as yourself?
Could email have become so central to today’s business interactions if businesses did not have the confidence of knowing they can choose to run their own email servers and have total control over it?
Remember CompuServe? ‘nuf said.
There will be other Twitter-like microblogging services. We had Jaiku and Pownce. We have Identi.ca, TypePad Motion, and Yahoo Meme. IMO, none of them lives up to the challenge of being a worthy Twitter-contender, but it’s only a matter of time, and incentive.
Incentive? Yes. Heck, Google & Facebook tried to acquire Twitter. Usually when a corporate attempts to acquire a startup it’s in the context of a make-or-buy discussion. When the “buy” option fails, corporate usually revert back to the first option. At some point, the big content players might also realize what an important role microblogging has in content distribution.
@biz has been quoted saying that Twitter’s potential is 4B cell phones. Guess what, there is another company that is eyeing the exact same market. A company that is known for having a keen understanding of the value of capturing the user intent and monetizing it. A company that has a reasonably good shot at controlling the entire stack – hardware, software and service. What will be the default microblogging service for the Googlephone? Will it be Twitter? I doubt it.
I believe that in 2 years, we’ll have additional 2-3 “Twitter-like” services from the big players.
But more important, if you follow Dave Winer’s work, you can clearly see how – in a typical Dave Winer fashion – the blocks are being laid out, one by one – the building blocks for an open, distributed, decentralized Twitter-like experience, which is based on widely available and well known technologies instead of proprietary ones.
Facebook were able to pull off successfully a centralized service, but that is because Facebook were bold enough to actually create a “second internet” – a walled garden which duplicates pretty much all of the utilities provided by the open net. Twitter is in a different game – if it tries to recreate the Facebook experience, it will loose much of its current appeal, the simplicity and minimalism that are its trademark (or was, before the Horrible Retweet Thingie). Plus, we already have Facebook, thank you.
Twitter could switch to a WordPress-like model, where you can choose to have your blog hosted on WordPress.com, or run your own WordPress server. Twitter could lead the way in establishing a (or adapting an existing) inter-microblogging-service protocol, that allows users of one service to @mention and follow the users of another compatible service (e.g. @yanivg@twitter). Twitter could start playing nice with pingbacks and trackbacks, with rssCloud and PubSubHub, with OPML, even *gasp* with SMTP, IMAP and POP. If they do that, given their market lead, Twitter might have a prominent position in the Post-One-Twitter world.
If they don’t, they might discover that the Internet does indeed abhors a funnel.
Tags: Dave Winer, Facebook, Microblogging, Open, Standards, Twitter
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November 25th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Posted “The 140-characters Netscape” – my thoughts on Twitter 2 years from now http://bit.ly/post-one-twitter
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 11:38 am
thoughtful > RT @yanivg: Posted “The 140-characters Netscape” – my thoughts on Twitter 2 years from now http://bit.ly/post-one-twitter
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November 25th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Good stuff… agree with every word RT @yanivg Posted “The 140-characters Netscape”-my thoughts on Twiteer… http://bit.ly/post-one-twitter
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Interesting article on the future of twitter by @yanivg “The 140-characters Netscape” http://bit.ly/6M6b6U
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by yanivg: Posted “The 140-characters Netscape” – my thoughts on Twitter 2 years from now http://bit.ly/post-one-twitter...
November 25th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
The 140-characters Netscape. http://r2.ly/nifs
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
I was considering this just last week… RT @yanivg The 140-characters Netscape http://bit.ly/7Gnf2C
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Yep!!! The 140-characters Netscape. http://r2.ly/nifs (via @davewiner)
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
[Good read] RT @davewiner: The 140-characters Netscape. http://r2.ly/nifs
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Interesting – Twitter, the 140-character Netscape: http://bit.ly/7ywBhK
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
i was actually thinking about this exact issue on the train this morning RT @davewiner: The 140-characters Netscape. http://r2.ly/nifs
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Must-read on microblogging RT @davewiner: The 140-characters Netscape. http://r2.ly/nifs
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Belo texto sobre Twitter! E tb prefiro uma plataforma aberta (Wave anyone?). RT @davewiner: The 140-characters Netscape http://bit.ly/4Upuy9
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Ord i alvor til det tvitrende folk | RT @davewiner The 140-characters Netscape. http://bit.ly/4Upuy9
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Another open vs. close argument in regards to Netscape is the Netscape Server (later to be called AOL Server) which was the major source of revenue for Netscape (a lot more than the browser itself).
It was basically a web server (and a rather good one) but at the time AOL acquired Netscape, Apache started to gain much traction.
Where is Netscape/AOL Server and where is Apache…
November 25th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
I believe that in 2 years the Twitter brand will be in the same position as the Netscape brand is in now: http://bit.ly/6d2Xd4
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
As developer of a Twitter application for Windows Mobile devices, I wholeheartedly understand that the web is fickle and that Twitter may go by the wayside for something better (like Google Wave, possibly), and that the consolidation of the Twitter platform is counter-productive to the open, non-centralized nature of the Internet. However, I do have to mention that the platform that Identi.ca is based on, Laconi.ca (now known as Status.net) does work in a manner similar to Wordpress – you can have your own hosted solution or “roll your own server.” What’s more is that it supports “remote subscriptions” (http://status.net/wiki/Remote_subscriptions), allowing you to subscribe to other users that do not reside on your own server.
Twitter, however, has a huge contender coming soon in the form of Google Wave, and it may spell its doom since it too already has built-in support for “federated servers.” But the real question is this: will it have widespread support as Twitter does? These are important questions since this is why Twitter took off – you could use it virtually anywhere and in virtually any way.
So, although making a business solely reliant on Twitter is, yes, a little fool-hearty, but the platforms are out there that may make Twitter-like microblogging platforms as ubiquitous as DNS.
IMHO :D
November 25th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
The 140-characters Netscape. http://r2.ly/nifs (via @davewiner)
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November 25th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Don’t get too comfortable: RT @stephenrandall: The 140-characters Netscape. http://tinyurl.com/ybd4mho
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 25th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Don’t get too comfortable: RT @stephenrandall: The 140-characters Netscape. http://tinyurl.com/ybd4mho
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 26th, 2009 at 1:02 am
The 140-characters Netscape http://yaniv.golan.name/blog/2009/11/25/the-140-characters-netscape/
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 28th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
[reading:] “The 140-characters Netscape” http://yaniv.golan.name/blog/2009/11/25/the-140-characters-netscape/ by @yanivg (via @YarinHochman)
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
November 28th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
[...] 28th of November: The 140-Characters Netscape good perspective on how things might play out in the [...]
November 28th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Hi there,
some days back I had the ’same kind of’ thought writing about.
But never considered that Facebook might (will want) to open up status updates to the public as optional (kind of an public profile) or Google will launch a competitor (product) that is laying on top of its Gmail/Public-Google-Profiles.
http://michaeljung.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/why-not-twitter-the-protocol/
December 7th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
[...] lecture I enjoyed in particular was Yaniv Golan’s (CTO of Yedda) “The 140-characters Netscape” where he [...]
December 7th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Thanks Ayelet
This comment was originally posted on Blonde 2.0
December 8th, 2009 at 12:39 am
I saw it as well and I think he was too pessimistic. His view was very bipolar where it can either become a giant or die like netscape and luckily life has some surprises in its basket to make sure we don’t all become fortune tellers.
Dudu
This comment was originally posted on Blonde 2.0
December 8th, 2009 at 9:42 am
I think it’s only possible if other players provide some wicked differentiation or specialization.
This comment was originally posted on Blonde 2.0
December 8th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Twitter = The 140-characters Netscape http://j.mp/7Fo4n3
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
December 8th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Slightly more fun while it lasts though RT @jeanlucr: Twitter = The 140-characters Netscape http://j.mp/7Fo4n3
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
December 8th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Hello World » Blog Archive » The 140-characters Netscape http://ff.im/-cB8uu
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
December 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Twitter = The 140-characters Netscape http://j.mp/7Fo4n3 (via @jeanlucr)
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
December 8th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Twitter = The 140-characters Netscape http://j.mp/7Fo4n3 (via @jeanlucr)
This comment was originally posted on Twitter
December 8th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
[...] lecture I enjoyed in particular was Yedda CTO Yaniv Golan’s “The 140-characters Netscape,” where [...]
December 8th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
You mean Netscape Communicator, not the ones based on the Mozilla source code at all. I think a better comparison would of been AOL, going from a full out service to a stripped down API for sending chats and email. Netscape evolved and changed, became Firefox eventually (even with the mozilla source code being entirely new)
Even so, I do not see this happening, Twitter is based in the cloud. Even if the BRAND Twitter goes away, it’s API will keep living on. BUT, seeing as you Twitter, and I never heard anyone Netscape anything, I do not think it will go anywhere.
This comment was originally posted on Social Media
December 8th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
It’s not inconceivable that Twitter will get replaced by a competitor or current third party adopter. What I keep telling people in the news business, though (people who write it off as a "fad") is Who cares? Twitter itself may not be around in five years, but if you think the form of communication Twitter invented is just going to disappear, you’re wrong. It’s like trying to say bars are a fad. It may be that that one bar is popular now and it’ll be replaced by something cooler five years down the line, but that’s the point: people will always go to bars.
This comment was originally posted on Social Media
December 9th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Obviously, I am not a fortune teller, and if there is one thing you can always count on, it’s surprises
However, to make things even worse, my view isn’t even bipolar, it’s uni-polar – I don’t think Twitter will survive by becoming a giant.
I see a chance for Twitter to be around long term if it becomes the leader in establishing open standards that enable interoperability with its competitors. And no, this is not an oxymoron.
Based on observing the (admittedly somewhat short) history of the net, I don’t think Twitter can survive long term if they insist on becoming the one and only funnel.
This comment was originally posted on Blonde 2.0
December 9th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Not necessarily.
Twitter has an impressive but still limited reach at this point – a few tens of millions, depending on who’s counting and how.
If a competing microblogging platform could end up being installed as the default on all Nokia phones, or – more likely – Googlephones – it could surpass Twitter in reach even if it was an inferior service.
This comment was originally posted on Blonde 2.0
December 9th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Absolutely, that was my point :) the Twitter form of communication is here to stay, though the service/brand delivering it may change over time.
This comment was originally posted on Social Media
December 9th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Now – That is an interesting thought, but I think it is too easy to just say that every company that starts a revolution is going to be "dead" within a few years.
If Twitter plays their cards right, they will still be in the front – of whatever is the "buzz" right then.
Best,
Magnus Lundin
This comment was originally posted on Social Media
December 9th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
In terms of "The Big Wide Internet World", the user base of Twitter is small. The user base of Google is very large. With the changes made in the last week or so, it may well be that Google is the thing that introduces the "real-time web" to a lot of users.
This comment was originally posted on Thoughts of Nigel
December 10th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Martin,
I think that you could well be correct.
It is a worrying sign for me that Twitter has not got its business model sorted out yet.It is going to allow the likes of Google and others to enter the market.
That I feel would be a bad thing
This comment was originally posted on Thoughts of Nigel
December 11th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Will twitter suffer the same fate as netscape? good post by @yanivg http://bit.ly/5auzxM #twitter #netscape
This comment was originally posted on Twitter